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Forecast of consumption growth and possibilities

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In the period from 2001 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of total electricity consumption in Serbia is expected to be around 1.2 percent and that of peak capacity is expected to be around 0.8 percent. A comparatively steady growth of electricity consumption in industry of around 4.3 percent annually and a slight decline of low voltage consumption of around 0.2 percent annually will lead to a reduction of uncontrolled consumption. Gross electricity consumption will reach 33260 GWh in 2006, and peak capacity will reach 6363 MW. In 2010, the consumption will be 34,950GWh, and the peak capacity will be 6,626MW.

Long-term agreed electricity deliveries to other systems include 1,065 GWh annually to the Electric Power Industry of Montenegro, in exchange for using HPP Piva (with an expected generation of 760 GWh) in the electric power system of EPS. Energy consumption for pumping water in reversible and pump-storage plants is around 1,100 GWh annually.

Under such conditions and measures, along with investment activities given in the following, which assumes improved state and revitalization, an energy and capacity deficit, namely energy deficit between 3,600 and 1600 GWh annually can be expected up to the year 2006, under average hydrology conditions (in dry years it is considerably higher). It is only after the commissioning of the second block in TPP Kolubara B (or a possible alternative) that EPS can expect to cover the consumption in the Republic of Serbia from its own resources.

Until then, the deficit must be covered through imports of electricity.

The total investment requirements of the Electric Power Industry in the following five years are estimated to be around 2.4 billion US Dollars. A significant part of investments must be provided by EPS from its internal sources. Higher prices and positive business management of EPS is an inevitable requirement for providing any other form of investment. This assumes the following:

  • Donations, in a smaller amount,
  • Loans provided by international institutions and other creditors,
  • Direct foreign investments.

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